CSP Should Produce USD$.05 per kWh, in its next rollout.

[Jay Rosenberg]

CSP costs too much! I have been independently researching and working on “next generation” renewable energy and power systems. My epiphany and model is that Solar Thermal systems can produce copious amounts of cheap, green electricity at $.05 /kWh, using a combination of existing components and some original, modified, and improved components.

Further, its not only the CSP system, per se, but the business model surrounding it, which will facilitate successful introduction, and widespread commercialization. CSP is a disruptive technology, in the multi-trillion dollar energy business. Solutions which do not have steep reductions in energy costs, will be temporal at best, and not take hold. The advantages of “traditional CSP” is that it is here today, and can be manufactured without high technology components, such as one finds in SOFC’s, PV or even ethanol / cellulosic enterprises. CSP efficiency needs to be improved significantly, not just around the edges, if it is to make up for its disadvantage namely sun shine is only during certain hours. There’s secondary considerations such as location as transmission costs are still a factor getting the power to the industrial zones and users. My analysis is that renewable wind system too can be built to generate $.05/kWh power, there will always be competition. The question re renewable energy is not can they, but, will they, and how is the benefit of this disruptive sorely needed societal “ether” going to be divided? Are the utilities going to give back $100’s of billions of dollars if they can source much cheaper? From telephony we have learned the cost per minute of a call was 1 mil ($.001), yet the end user was paying orders of magnitude more. The CSP /energy industry can also learn from the PC/ Chip industry, which faced a “cannibalization decision” - to have your new products compete with your existing products, and annihilate them! Of all the parties only Intel had the understanding, that you must – not just sell what you have, with incremental improvements, but introduce the next generation with much more power for less money! Thusly the Intel chip series of processors went 8088, 80186, 80286. 80386, 80486, now “Pentium – 586”, and now multi-core to boot. My objective is to participate in the commercialization of $.05/kWh, or cheaper, renewable energy, and want to discuss this with others of similar vision.

JR, CEO, Sannerprojects, Inc
[e-mail]

[Graham Ford]

Hi Jay,

Your 5c/kWh vision is the right. one This is my vision also. The keys to this are: a) material minimisation, through lean design and high efficiency, b) process productivity, c) very low O & M costs, d) long life, e) a portfolio aproach, f) large capacity power distribution, g) commitment to large scale (more than 100 GW over 20 years).

Market material costs will dominate the capital cost, and so getting these materials through recycling, in house processing is probably also part of of the picture.

HelioDynamics now has what we think is the lowest cost CSP technology platform, bu this is only a start.

Regards,

Graham
[e-mail]

[sushil sethi]

i also agree with your views and believe that the shortage of power in india can be very well met by csp technology and will appreciate your thinking on this .for more details about us please see www.pml.co.in

[Paul]

A nickel sure... but what's the time frame?

How about $3/Watt and $0.12 with a 10 year depreciation?

How about $10,000 per acre per year of wholesale generation?

Come on by to the Solar Power group on the Pickens Plan site. Same board software, *lots* more members. http://www.push.pickensplan.com/

[Jay Rosenberg]

Hi Paul, A lot of things are falling into place. One of the key elements is the high effiicency renewable energy turbine (RET), which also can be mass manufactured. In CSP the net efficiencies are generally low, in part because the first team up at bat, sold the investors old technology, and did not integrate high temperatures (you can not violate Carnot equations), or thermal storage. The timeframe unfortunately is a function of things like the high cost of patent protection. Fortunately, 3D virtual models, mathematics, and simple POC (proof of fundamental principles) work very well, and transfer to the real world. There would not be AeroBuses, or Boeing Jet liners without this approach. RET will make for a more cost effective CSP, and also open up some new avenues regarding scale, and function. Been involved in 2 tech revolutions, and it still amazes me how the higher ups are isolated from technology by experts who do not grasp, or who comanded the last war. Let me illustrate. Al Gores suggestion of 100% US electrical in 10 years. Electrical is only 10% of US energy. We should have as a minimal goal 100% of US ENERGY via renewable in 10 years. 10 years is a long time, even applying a version of Moores Law for Renewables. Regardless, his objective translates to 10% energy independence in 10 years? Does that sound like a politician's mantra? I think he was misinformed in this basic 101 understanding.

[Paul]

Hey Jay,

Have you been rummaging through my files :^) ??? We could do it now, well, as soon as we get the factory up and running...

I did a recompute of the system, with more spacing, (lower area efficiency, but greater energy yield) 8 hr per day, 240 days/year, 20 year lifetime and tit cones out to $0.056/kWh

Gimme a shout if you're still interested. Stop by PickensPlan. I'm at the top of the Solar Power Group